Process
How We Developed the FEWscapes Scenarios
The scenarios emerged from a five-year process that involved sophisticated computer models and dozens of contributors.
The FEWscapes scenarios are four contrasting visions for the year 2050. They are aspirational in nature, starting from the question, what could it take to reach certain goals for food production, clean energy, water quality, and ecosystem health?
Each scenario represents a different potential pathway toward those goals in the Upper Mississippi River Basin.
Setting Goals in Partnership with Stakeholders
Scenarios are, essentially, “what ifs” for the future.
The development of the FEWscapes scenarios started with a deliberate process of listening to the hopes and concerns of a wide range of people invested in the future of the Basin. We recruited a diverse set of professionals from the agriculture and natural resources sectors who work on food, energy, water, and ecosystem security in the region.
We then facilitated discussions with them to co-create a list of goals, stressors, innovations, and opportunities that were worth exploring in the scenarios. Where possible, we tried to link goals to recognizable quantitative targets, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s goal of reducing nutrient loss in the Mississippi River Basin by 45% by 2035.
Defining The Scenarios Through Backcasting
Along with our community partners, we then used a method called “backcasting” to sketch out the scenarios. Backcasting starts by setting a desired future and then looking back to assess how to reach that end goal.
Our process focused on what partners thought it would take – in terms of changes in land use and society, for example – to reach big-picture food, energy, water, and ecosystem goals simultaneously.
FEWscapes researchers then converted the ideas from the backcasting discussions into four short narratives, each one a scenario that could plausibly achieve the future goals.
Learn more about backcasting in this explainer on our blog.
Building Baseline Datasets
After that, we needed to measure the baseline conditions that we would use to model landscape change in the unfolding future. That required using computer models to simulate the past, using historical data.
Our baseline conditions reflect how land-use legacies have influenced soil conditions, nutrients, and vegetation across the Basin. This baseline can have an important influence on how ecosystems function in the future.
Furthermore, our models needed a measurable set of landscape and climate conditions to simulate how the four scenario narratives would impact land use and land cover change in the Basin.
We quantified model inputs related to land use, nutrient application, cropland management, and more. These datasets are consistent with the scenario narratives.
We also chose six commonly-used future climate projections under which to evaluate each scenario.
Modeling The Consequences of Change
Next, we used our models to estimate the consequences of the climate, land use, and social changes that occur in the scenarios between now and 2050.
Our primary models were Agro-IBIS and THMB. Agro-IBIS simulates crop production and management, while THMB simulates how nutrients and water flow across the landscape. As a pair, Agro-IBIS and THMB can estimate the future state of variables such as crop production, water quality and quantity, and flood regulation.
Furthermore, to estimate total food and biofuel production in each scenario, we used a separate model calculation based on assumptions about how crops are used in each scenario (i.e., for food, feed, or fuel).
Learn about how our models compare to common land management models in this post.
Translating The Model Results for Decision-Making
The model results include projected future conditions for food production, biofuel energy production, nitrogen and phosphorus runoff, sediment loss, drought and flood frequency, perennial biomass and ecosystem carbon storage under multiple projected future climates. They essentially provide insight into how much progress the changes that occur in each scenario could make toward long-term goals for food, energy, water, and ecosystems in the Basin.
Ultimately, we hope the scenarios help shine light on potential pathways to achieving goals for food, energy, water, and ecosystems. Our intent is to spark transformative thinking about how to achieve these goals and, generally, help managers, practitioners, and policymakers prepare for a future that will be different from today.
We invite everyone to join this conversation by exploring the scenarios and model results.