Model Results
Hotspots for Tranformation Results
In 2050, a mix of conservation agriculture practices, restored ecosystems, and perennial grazing land are strategically placed to maximize environmental benefit.
Scenario Snapshot
- Policies target nutrient runoff hotspots for conversion to conservation agriculture, restored ecosystems, or perennial grazing land.
- 15% of total cropland has been converted to a combination of restored ecosystems and perennial agriculture.
- 40% of agricultural lands incorporate cover crops, but their costs limit wider coverage.
- Corn ethanol production has decreased due to vehicle electrification but still exists to produce jet fuel and other bio-based consumer products.
Hotspots for Transformation
Toggle between the two climate projections – wet & warm and dry & hot – to see how climate conditions impact the outcomes. These climate projections represent the two ends of the range of six total projections we used in our models.
Key Takeaways from Hotspots for Transformation
What do these model results mean? The following takeaways describe how this scenario’s model results compare to conditions today and to the model results of the other three scenarios. Unless specified, these takeaways hold for both the warm-and-wet and hot-and-dry climate projections.
2050 versus Today
Depending on climate, food production remains either unchanged or declines.
In a wet and warm climate, the region produces about the same amount of food energy as in 2020 (but less food per person, due to population growth). In a dry and hot climate, food yield declines substantially.
The biofuel industry shrinks but doesn’t disappear.
Biofuel production is way below today’s levels—about a 25% to 50% decline, depending on climate conditions. But the region still retains significant production to supply producers of plant-based aviation fuel.
Less sediment loss but more phosphorus runoff.
Some adoption of cover crops and transition away from annual crops reduces erosion in the Basin. Continued annual cropping, legacy nutrients, and stronger storms, though, mean that phosphorus runoff worsens somewhat regardless of climate conditions.
Climate is decisive for nitrogen.
In a hot and dry climate, reduced growing season rain leads to modest improvements in nitrogen leaching. In wet and warm climates, nitrogen leaching worsens somewhat.
Gains in biodiversity and carbon storage.
The conversion of landscape to pasture and restored ecosystems increases perennial biomass on the landscape, creating more space for plant and animal life to thrive. These changes also lead to a more modest increase in carbon stored on the landscape.
Hotspots for Transformation versus The Other Three Scenarios
In general, middle-of-the-road outcomes.
Because this scenario is a composite of the other three, its results, in most cases, amount to “averaging” the outcomes of the others, blunting the biggest positive and negative changes.
Food: Worst for food production.
Like America’s Pasture and Restoration Agriculture, this scenario takes significant land out of annual agriculture. But unlike in those scenarios, diets don’t change and biofuel production continues. The result is less food available for humans than any other scenario.
Biofuel: Second highest biofuel production.
Like Cropland Conservation, biofuel production continues; but unlike Cropland Conservation, biofuel production does not grow.
Water: Neither best nor worst.
The growth of conservation agriculture means, in a hot and dry climate, Hotspots lags behind only Cropland Conservation in nitrogen runoff reductions. Otherwise, the scenario has middle-of-the-road outcomes for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loss.
Ecosystems: Second best for perennial biomass and ecosystem carbon.
The combination of grazing land and restored ecosystems puts Hotspots behind Restoration Agriculture as second best for both perennial biomass and ecosystem carbon.