Model Results
Restoration Agriculture Results
In 2050, farmers tend not just crops, but also restored forests, wetlands, and prairies.
Scenario Snapshot
- Half of all cropland has been converted to restored ecosystems, including wetlands, forests, and grasslands.
- “Payment for ecosystem services” programs allow farmers to make a living through a combination of crop production and ecosystem stewardship.
- Corn ethanol production has been virtually eliminated, due to the transition to electric vehicles.
- Plant-based diets boom; meat and dairy consumption declines significantly.
Restoration Agriculture
Toggle between the two climate projections – wet & warm and dry & hot – to see how climate conditions impact the outcomes. These climate projections represent the two ends of the range of six total projections we used in our models.
* 2002-2021 (Baseline 0) and 2051-2070 (Future)
Key Takeaways from Restoration Agriculture
What do these model results mean? The following takeaways describe how this scenario’s model results compare to conditions today and to the model results of the other three scenarios. Unless specified, these takeaways hold for both the warm-and-wet and hot-and-dry climate projections.
2050 versus Today
Biofuel production plummets.
The transition to electric vehicles crushes biofuel demand, all but eliminating the industry and freeing up cropland area for alternative uses.
For food supply, climate plays a decisive role.
In a warm and wet climate, food production increases slightly compared to today. Cultivated area is reduced but due to the growth of plant-based diets, the share of harvests that go directly to humans increases. Under hot and dry conditions, the inverse occurs—the region is marked by droughts and declining food crop yields.
Big progress on stemming erosion, but nutrient pollution persists.
The widespread restoration of former farmland slows sediment loss. Phosphorus runoff declines slightly, but legacy nutrients, plus stronger and more frequent storms, limit progress. Nitrate leaching declines slightly only under drier climate conditions, as restoration does not fully offset the continued nitrogen inputs to cropland that occur in the 2020s and 2030s.
Ecosystems thrive.
Restoration leads to increased ecosystem carbon, and the region’s perennial biomass nearly doubles, representing an explosion of new habitat for plant and animal life.
Restoration Agriculture versus The Other Three Scenarios
Food: Neither best nor worst for food calories, but way less meat and dairy.
The transition to plant-based diets in this scenario allows for its food supply to remain middle-of-the-pack on a smaller land base, but the composition of food supplied changes. Restoration Agriculture supplies fewer animal-based food calories than any other scenario.
Biofuel: Lowest biofuel production.
Restoration Agriculture and America’s Pasture virtually eliminate biofuel production, meaning their output of bioenergy is significantly lower than Cropland Conservation and Hotspots for Transformation.
Water: Best for phosphorus and sediment loss.
Restoration Agriculture is the only scenario to generate reductions in phosphorus runoff, with slight declines regardless of climate. It also reduces sediment loss more than any other scenario.
Ecosystems: Best for ecosystems.
All scenarios show gains in ecosystem carbon and perennial biomass, but none as big as Restoration Agriculture. Perennial biomass especially shines, with gains significantly larger than Hotspots for Transformation, the second-largest gainer.